Kansas City Chiefs Season Wins Total: Tough Schedule Brings Under Into Play

With all of the hype surrounding the rest of the AFC West, it almost seems like the Kansas City Chiefs have been forgotten about this offseason. Most sportsbooks aren’t falling for it, however, as their 2022 season win total sits at 10.5. There are only three teams with higher win totals — the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Green Bay Packers.

In their last nine seasons, the Chiefs have at least 11 wins in all but two of them. Will Kansas City underperform given its projected strength of schedule? Or will the Chiefs prove (once again) that they’re one of the top teams in the NFL regardless of opponents? Let’s look at betting the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2022 season win total.

If all goes well, Chiefs fans in Kansas will be able to place wagers on the team this season now that sports betting has been legalized.

Chiefs Season Wins Total For 2022

SportsbookChiefs 2022 Win Total
DraftKingsOver 10.5 (-115)
Under 105 (-105)
FanDuelOver 10.5 (-110)
Under 10.5 (-110)
BetMGMOver 10.5 (-115)
Under 10.5 (-105)

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Chiefs 2022 Outlook

The Chiefs’ offense has defined the team since QB Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018. For the first time since then, there are questions surrounding the wide receiver group. Tyreek Hill, who averaged over 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns over the last four years, was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a treasure trove of draft picks. Mecole Hardman hasn’t lived up to his second-round draft capital. 

Kansas City did make additions throughout free agency and the draft, however. In free agency, the Chiefs paid former Packers wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be the speed replacement for Hill. They also signed former Steelers slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. In the 2022 draft, Kansas City spent a second-round pick on Western Michigan wide receiver Skyy Moore.

Defensively, the Chiefs lost safety Tyrann Mathieu and cornerback Charvarius Ward but signed Justin Reid in free agency and drafted Trent McDuffie with their first-round selection.

Diving into Kansas City’s 2022-2023 schedule, there are very few “gimmes” for the Chiefs. In fact, the Chiefs’ 2022 schedule made NFL history with their first eight opponents all having winning records last season. If we look at the Chiefs’ opponents’ season win totals, Sharp Football Analysis has Kansas City with the most difficult 2022-2023 schedule in the NFL.

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Betting Recommendation

I’m personally staying away from the Chiefs’ season win total for 2022. If I were forced to choose, however, I’d take the over. Even with the difficult road ahead, I simply can’t bet against a team led by coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. Taking the under feels like such a thin play. As stated earlier, the Chiefs have had at least 11 wins in seven of their last nine seasons. The two they didn’t reach 11 came just short – at 9 and 10 wins.

Projecting 11 or more wins given the difficult strength of schedule and offensive uncertainty is tough to lay your money down on as well.

Let’s try and break this down:

  • Let’s start with nine wins:
    • Three divisional wins, assuming they split with the Raiders, Broncos, and Chargers.
    • Three games they should be heavily favored in: home matchups against Jacksonville and Seattle, and away versus Houston.
    • Three favorable tilts against Arizona, Indianapolis, and Tennessee.
  • The Chiefs would then just need two wins to hit the over, with remaining matchups against Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.
    • Three of these games, however, are on the road.

It’s certainly viable for the Chiefs to hit 11 or more wins for the fifth-straight season. On the other hand, going 1-4 in those key five games (all against playoff teams) wouldn’t exactly be an upset, either.

Personally, if you want to take the over at 10.5, I would rather put my money on the Chiefs to win the division. As of this writing, you can get Kansas City at +175 to win the AFC West on DraftKings Sportsbook.

AP Photos/Reed Hoffmann

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